Kim Jong-Un in North Korea has been using satellite subterfuge to test parts of a so-called ‘monster’ missile, analysts say, as it gears up for a sanctions-shattering launch ahead of a key domestic anniversary in April.

When Donald Trump was president, North Korea was quite tame, and he and King Jong-Un got along famously writing ‘love letters’ to each other. But after a year of pretend president Biden, global bad actors suddenly feel emboldened again, as we have been watching over the past 2-plus weeks in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.” Matthew 24:6 (KJB)

North Korea is one of those states, like Iran, that always seems to bluster more than they bite, but every once in a while do something that reminds you of how dangerously they actually can be. Russia has been percolating for 8 years, and then, they move on Ukraine stunning everyone. King Jong-Un is a nutcase, but one that deserves to be taken seriously.

North Korea plans ‘monster’ missile launch by April: Analysts

FROM CHANNEL NEWS ASIA: Pyongyang has conducted a record nine weapons tests so far this year, in what experts see as an effort to work through a laundry list of strategic weapons set out by leader Kim Jong Un. One top priority is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can carry multiple warheads – the Hwasong-17, dubbed a “monster missile” and first unveiled at a parade in October 2020. It has never been test-fired – but Washington said Thursday (Mar 10) Pyongyang had recently tested parts of it disguised as a satellite.

North Korea has been observing a self-imposed moratorium on testing long range and nuclear weapons, but with talks stalled and sanctions still in place, it seems close to tearing it up.

“I think the moratorium is as good as over. We should expect to see a return to ICBM testing,” said US-based security analyst Ankit Panda.

The tests of purported “reconnaissance satellite” components on February 27 and March 5 were likely the Hwasong-17, possibly the technology to “carry and deliver multiple warheads”, he said.

“North Korea hasn’t demonstrated the latter capability before, even if it has tested ICBMs capable of ranging the United States three times,” he said.

CYCLE OF ESCALATION

North Korea’s renewed determination to test an ICBM comes at a delicate time in the region, with a new, more hawkish president, conservative Yoon Suk-yeol, set to take control in South Korea. Yoon – who has threatened Pyongyang with a pre-emptive strike and promised to tell “rude boy” Kim to behave – looks set to take a hard line with the North after five years under dovish liberal President Moon Jae-in. But this approach is likely to lead to a cycle of escalation that will ratchet up tensions, Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, told AFP.

Launches will be met with fresh sanctions, to which “Pyongyang will likely respond by test-firing more weapons”. North Korea paused its tests to “make room for diplomacy and avoid further sanctions”, but always kept working on diversifying its missiles, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. Eventually, “in order to ensure accuracy and reentry capability, such weapons need to be tested”, he said.

Masking these as satellite tests can help them to “buy time” to develop what they need to launch an ICBM, said Ahn Chan-il, a North Korean studies scholar, told AFP.

And Pyongyang has a clear deadline: North Korea will mark the 110th anniversary of the birth of founding leader and Kim’s grandfather Kim Il Sung in April and likes to mark key domestic anniversaries with military parades or launches.

“It’s very likely that North Korea is going to test-fire an ICBM on April 15 for Kim Il Sung’s birthday,” Ahn said. READ MORE

North Korea Tested Intercontinental Ballistic Missile System, Says US Officials

U.S. intelligence agencies say they now believe that North Korea’s latest two missile launches were actually secret tests of a new “intercontinental ballistic missile system.” A senior administration official calls the recent tests, “a serious escalation.” In response, the U.S. has stepped up surveillance activities in the region and enacted “enhanced readiness” for its missile defense forces.

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